As a Dutch surfer who spent half of his summer surfing along the coasts of France and Spain, you’d think I made a pretty good choice. Turns out, I didn’t.

The number of times my local surf Whatsapp group lit up with messages about waves hitting the Dutch coast was almost unbearable, especially while I was staring out at a mostly flat Atlantic Ocean. Luckily, I made it back to the Netherlands for the second half of summer. And to my surprise, the North Sea just kept delivering waves. Week after week, there seemed to be another window of warm rippable waves. Even now, after a great run of swell this past weekend, another period of waves is already showing up on the forecast.

But why has this summer been exceptionally good for surfing? Is it El Niño? The North Sea being warmer than ever? Climate change? Or did we simply get lucky?

We did some research. And we found out there isn't really a simple answer because waves are weather-related, and the weather is reaaaaallly complex. But there are some meaningful insights that sort of explain the phenomenon.

THE RIGHT WIND CONDITIONS

According to the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), the weather began shifting between high and low-pressure systems in a particularly favourable way from the first half of June onward.

For waves to build, you basically need three things: wind strength, how long the wind blows, and fetch, meaning the distance the wind can travel across open water.

KNMI notes that a northwesterly wind field running down the length of the North Sea is especially effective, because it gives waves a long stretch of open water to build. That is why even a fairly ordinary low-pressure system, when positioned in the right place, can suddenly make the Dutch coast come alive.

Throughout June and July, this pattern repeated several times:

It was almost the perfect cycle for North Sea surfing. The windy periods generated the waves, while the calmer periods that followed often gave the sea a chance to clean up, creating repeated windows of good summer surf.

31% HIGHER WAVES THAN AVERAGE

Let’s be real. As surfers, we can feel like the waves were better than ever, but our memories aren’t exactly scientific evidence. It’s a bit like landing a cutback that feels absolutely insane, only to get an insecurity jumpscare when someone shows you the video afterwards.

So we looked at the numbers. At the Fjaltring buoy on the exposed Danish side of the North Sea, the average significant wave height in July 2026 was 4.7 ft, compared with a historical July average of 3.6 ft. That means wave heights were roughly 31% above the historical July average at that location.

It doesn’t prove that every North Sea surf spot was 31% better, but it does confirm something important: the North Sea genuinely carried more wave energy than usual during one of the key summer months.

IT'S GETTING HOT IN HERE

But damn, the water was warm.

As a wetsuit company, we probably shouldn’t say it, but you could almost make the case for surfing in boardshorts all summer long. So was the North Sea actually as warm as it felt? Turns out, yes.

This summer, the North Sea reached some of the highest temperatures ever recorded, with water temperatures climbing well above the seasonal average. There wasn’t one single cause. Long periods of sunshine, high pressure and relatively weak winds all played a role, while global warming has also been steadily pushing North Sea temperatures higher over the long term. That meant many of the swell windows arrived not only with waves, but with unusually warm water too.

At Lichteiland Goeree, around 30 kilometres off the Dutch coast, the North Sea hit a record 21.5°C, the highest temperature recorded there since measurements began in 1984. By mid-August, temperatures had already stayed above 20°C for 35 days.

CONCLUSION

So, what's the best explanation? Simply put, a record-warm North Sea happened to coincide with an unusually good sequence of wave-producing weather systems. Maybe we simply got lucky after all. As is always the case when scoring good waves.